Will Bitcoin Mining Remain Viable after the Subsidy is Gone?
Every technological upgrade in Bitcoin — from wallet improvements to script innovations — has quietly reshaped the economics of block space. This study explores the historical milestones that, intentionally or not, influenced how transactions are structured, how block space is consumed, and how miner fees evolved from an afterthought into a critical pillar of Bitcoin’s long-term sustainability. With the block subsidy diminishing every four years, the central question emerges: Can miner fees alone sustain the network? Using a Bitcoin crawler, I seek to gather the hard numbers required to help answer that question.
My working hypothesis: As Bitcoin's block subsidy approaches zero over time, transaction fees will increase proportionally to meet or exceed the operating costs of mining, maintaining network security through continued miner participation.
- Introduction 2025-05-13
- Update 001 2025-05-13
- Update 002 2025-05-14
- Update 003 2025-05-14
- Update 004 2025-05-15
- Appendix 1 Which Epoch? Let's try to keep our language clear.
- Appendix 2 Understanding Difficulty and Mining Cost Estimation
- Appendix 3 Methodological Grounding
- Appendix 4 BTC Prices Source
"I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government.
That is, we can’t take them violently out of the hands of government. All we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something
that they can’t stop”
— F.A. Hayek, The Denationalization of Money (1976)